"In the weeks before the November, 2016, U.S. election, I talked to several experts to gauge the danger of a Trump presidency. I recently consulted them again. While in 2016 they were alarmed, this last month most were utterly dismayed. All told me the U.S. political situation has deteriorated sharply since last year's [2020] attack on Capitol Hill.
"Jack Goldstone, a political sociologist at George Mason University in Washington, D.C., and a leading authority on the causes of state breakdown and revolution, told me that since 2016 we've learned that early optimism about the resilience of U.S. democracy was based on two false assumptions: 'First, that American institutions would be strong enough to easily withstand efforts to subvert them; and second, that the vast majority of people will act rationally and be drawn to the political centre, so that it's impossible for extremist groups to take over.'
"But especially after the 2020 election, Dr. Goldstone said, we've seen that core institutions - from the Justice Department to county election boards - are susceptible to pressure. They've barely held firm. 'We've also learned that the reasonable majority can be frightened and silenced if caught between extremes, while many others can be captured by mass delusions.' And to his surprise 'moderate GOP leaders have either been forced out of the party or acquiesced to a party leadership that embraces lies and anti-democratic actions.'
[...]
"In this context, it's worth noting the words of Dmitry Muratov, the courageous Russian journalist who remains one of the few independent voices standing up to Mr. Putin and who just received the Nobel Prize for Peace. At a news conference after the awards ceremony in Oslo, as Russian troops and armour were massing on Ukraine's borders, Mr. Muratov spoke of the iron link between authoritarianism and war. 'Disbelief in democracy means that the countries that have abandoned it will get a dictator,' he said. 'And where there is a dictatorship, there is a war. If we refuse democracy, we agree to war.'"
"The American polity is cracked, and might collapse. Canada must prepare", The Globe and Mail, 2021-12-31